Saturday’s draw at MK Dons means they rely more than ever on their rivals slipping up, with their stalemate at Stadium MK seeing them drop valuable points in the race for the top six.
Five points now separate John Mousinho’s side with fifth and sixth-placed Bolton and Peterborough with just six games of the season remaining.
But what’s the chances of the Blues winning today against Morecambe and Bolton, Posh, Derby and Wycombe suffering blows to their own play-off bids?
Here’s what the statistical analysts at Fivethirtyeight.com think.
9. Plymouth v Lincoln - home win
Plymouth win: 62%. Lincoln win: 13%. Draw:25%. Photo: Tom Dulat
10. Port Vale v Oxford United - away win
Port Vale win: 31%. Oxford United win: 41%. Draw: 28%. Photo: Bryn Lennon
11. Pompey v Morecambe - home win
Pompey win: 70%. Morecambe win: 10%. Draw: 20%. Photo: Jason Brown
12. Sheffield Wednesday v Accrington - home win
Sheffield Wednesday win: 79%. Accrington win: 5%. Draw: 16%. Photo: Dan Mullan