‘Best value in the EFL’: The surprise Portsmouth billing ahead of crucial Blackburn Rovers contest
Pompey lock horns with relegation rivals Blackburn Rovers on Saturday.
Pompey are the ‘best value in the EFL this weekend’.
That is the exciting verdict of Ali Maxwell from the reputed Not The Top 20 podcast, who believes the Blues’ upturn in performances will be enough to see off relegation rivals Blackburn Rovers.
John Mousinho’s men turn their attention to Saturday’s pivotal lunchtime contest against Michael O’Neill’s, where they sit five points above the relegation zone.
Despite successive defeats to promotion-chasing Wrexham and Hull City in their previous two, Pompey have been a rejuvenated side after a mid-season ‘reset’ following the New Year’s Day loss to Bristol City.
Although their issues in front of goal continue to be an issue, the Blues have been creating plenty of chances - and currently hold the highest expected goals (xG) in the Championship over the past 10 matches.
Mousinho’s troops face a tough test against relegation rivals Blackburn on Saturday, with Rovers winning just four home games this term.
And Pompey’s upturn in performances and results - particularly away from home - has got Maxwell believing the Blues have enough to see off O’Neill’s side and crucially move themselves one step closer to survival.
Surprising Pompey billing ahead of Blackburn showdown
Speaking on the latest NTT20 episode, he said: ‘I'm just going to back Portsmouth. I do think they're the best value in the EFL this weekend.
‘They are per ‘Not The Top’ tables, which is our data product on NTT20.com. It's xG numbers chopped up lots of different ways. So I do like the 10 game league tables and then we've got season totals as well.
‘In the Championship 10 game xG table, Portsmouth have the highest xG ratio - that's the proportion of total xG that you take shooting a goal versus that you face. So 68 per cent xG ratio means that Portsmouth, only on xG, basically have twice as many chances as their opposition over the a 10 game period.
‘Now, it's only four wins in that time, two draws and four defeats, so the points return is not that reflective of it and so there’s always things you can dig in deeper to work out where deficiencies could still be tripping them up, but it's still a decent return. It's moved them away from the bottom three.
‘And this is a massive game against Blackburn, an absolutely massive game. It's a, it's a whoever loses starts to panic big time because Portsmouth are five points above the relegation zone, Blackburn are four points above the relegation zone.
‘You got West Brom, Leicester, and Oxford, it's not out of the question that one or two of those teams perhaps could kick on and put the pressure on these two teams. So don't lose this one. A bit of my advice.
‘Blackburn under Michael O'Neil, they started with two wins and they followed that with two defeats. I still think they’re a tough team to analyse.
‘They've had some bad halves of football for sure. The first half against Bristol City, they found themselves 2-1 down, came on strong in the second half but couldn't get the equaliser. The second half against Derby basically the opposite of that, they were 1-0 up at half-time and then they conceded three in the second half.
‘They didn't provide a good backs to the wall performance.
‘A big part of this is Blackburn at home. They are not a team for whom home advantage applies. They've got 17 points from 18 home games, less than a point per game at home is disgusting to be honest. They've won four of 18, one of which was against Sheffield Wednesday. They score less than the goal a game at home in the league this season.
‘Portsmouth, historically (are) quite poor on their travels over the last 18, 19 months, but a bit better recently.
‘If they play anything like they have done over their last 10 games, I think they will have more chances than Blackburn in this game and will need them to take their chances, which they don't always.
‘But apart from Murphy, they've got quite a lot of players available at the top of the pitch behind Bishop.
‘You’ve got a mixture of Alli and Caballero, but also Chaplin and Segecic. There's options for John Mousinho.’