The points total Portsmouth, Leicester, West Brom and Oxford could need to avoid Championship relegation
History suggest Pompey might need just seven more points to retain their Championship status for another year.
Seven points from their remaining 10 games of the season should be enough for Pompey to retain their Championship status.
But with this season’s battle at the bottom of the table one of the closest in recent memory - only three points separated 23rd West Brom and the 19th-placed Blues ahead of this weekend’s games - John Mousinho’s side might need a little bit more in reserve to get across the finishing line and secure a third successive season in the second tier.
The teams to finish fourth from bottom in the division over the past five seasons have accumulated an average points total of 46.8 - a figure that increases to 47.1 if you add the Covid-impacted 2019-20 campaign which was eventually finished after a near three-month suspension in play.
With the Blues currently sitting on 40 point from their 36 games played to date, two matches fewer than all their rivals, they remain within touching distance of safety.
The Fratton Park side have made life slightly more difficult for themselves in recent weeks, with impressive back-to-back victories at Charlton and Millwall followed by home defeats at the hands of Hull and Swansea, an away loss at Wrexham and a draw at relegation rivals Blackburn Rovers when victory was within their grasp.
That injury-time collapse, along with the late Fratton Park defeat to the Tigers, led Mousinho to question the mentality of his side as he accused his players of continually shooting themselves in the foot.
No doubt he’ll be expecting a response from his side when Derby County visit PO4 - where the Blues haven’t won since beatng West Brom on January 31 - on Monday night. And if they manage to beat the Rams for the first time in the league since the Premier League meeting between the two sides in January 2008, then the Blues will have gone a long way to booking their place in the division for next term.
Indeed, the seven points they could potentially need equates to just two wins and a draw. But as we all know, it’s never that easy. Following the game against the Rams come fixtures against QPR (A), Norwich (A), Oxford United (H), Middlesbrough (A), Ipswich (H), Leicester City (H), Coventry (A), Stoke (A) and Birmingham at home on the final day of the season.
After a run of just one point from 12, none of the above are nailed-on bankers at this stage of the season.
What previous Championship seasons tell us
Last season the Blues finished 16th on 54 points. That was five points clear of the relegation zone and five more points than what fourth-from-bottom Hull accumulated (49), after avoiding relegation on goal difference only.
Forty-nine ponts have been required twice over the past three campaigns to avoid the drop back into League One. Meanwhile, Plymouth required 51 points at the end of the 2023-24 campaign to retain their Championship status.
No more than seven points have separated bottom of the table andd fourth from bottom over those past three seasons.
And with little separating Pompey, Oxford United, Blackburn Rovers, Leicester and West Brom as we approach the business end of the season, you suspect a similar tight finish lies in wait, with teams having to go to the wire to escape the clutches of relegation.
Pompey’s destiny remains in their own hands. But have they the mentaility to get the job done without more drama? Only time will tell.
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