How Portsmouth could be much closer to Championship survival than expected against Cardiff City, Derby County, Plymouth Argyle & Co
The Championship survival race is hotting up as sides turn for home with the final furlongs now on the horizon.
And, perhaps more significantly, what has Pompey’s impressive form done to improve their chances of remaining in the second tier next term?
Of course, there is ultimately no true way of knowing with certainty what is going to unfold over the final 10 weeks of the campaign, but we do have a bank of Championship, tables and statistics from years gone by to help provide indicators over how things could play out.
John Mousinho has thrown down his target as reaching for the 50-point total managers often aim for when it comes to staying in this division. The average figure for finishing outside of the bottom three over the past decade is actually just 44.5 points, however.
Over the past 20 years, the high watermark for staying up was the 55 points Barnsley achieved in the 2012-13 season, as Peterborough went down with a point fewer. Meanwhile, over the same period Reading had the lowest figure three years ago with 41 points, as the Posh went down with just a 37-point total.
Looking a little closer at those two campaigns, at a similar stage to now in 2022 Derby were occupying the third relegation spot on just 24 points, while at the high point Wolves had achieved 35 points.
Plymouth are the team currently in the final relegation berth this term on 30 points, which falls somewhere in the middle of those two extremes, adding weight to the suggestion this term could be somewhere in and around that 44.5-point average figure.
The Pilgrims, however, have shown signs of Championship improvement of late, which leads into an assessment of the form of the teams involved and how that could impact proceedings.
It’s Pompey who are shaping up best in that department, with their 10 points from the past six matches showing them motoring along at 1.66 points per game at present. Plymouth’s 1.5 points per game is next best with a drop-off to Stoke and Hull (1.16 points per game), Cardiff (1 point per game), Oxford (0.5 points per game) with both Derby and Luton mustering just 0.3 points per game at present.
That makes it clear how much a number of teams are struggling down in the lower reaches of the table at the moment, with perhaps throwing things forward the next area to assess.
Looking at the teams’ run-ins will be explored in greater detail by The News with 10 games remaining, but perusing the remaining fixtures does make for interesting viewing.
Two more wins?
It’s Luton, Derby and Cardiff who perhaps have that the highest volume of fixtures against side at the top and around them in the table, with the perceived wisdom facing teams safely tucked in mid-table is preferable as the games count down to the season’s finish. Pompey’s final 12 games looks comparatively reasonable in that sense.
Will it work out favourably? We’ll see, but we do know that just two more wins will now see Mousinho’s men cross that mean figure for survival.
And there’s plenty to suggest this season is falling broadly around the average, certainly with nothing pointing to a huge departure from that total.