"We're showing Donald Trump we're serious": Expert weighs in on Strategic Defence Review and Royal Navy

Dr Dafydd Townley believes some of the policies outlined in the Strategic Defence Review (SDR) this morning (June 2) are necessary to solve ongoing problems in the armed forces - but some questions still need to be answered. Prime minister Sir Keir Starmer announced sweeping changes which he hopes will bolster the country’s military and drive economic growth at the same time.

Dr Townley, Teaching Fellow in International Security at the University of Portsmouth, told The News: “I think it’s a step in the right direction but it needs to be a greater step. There are a lot of ambiguities. Future spending has been described as an ambition and not as a commitment to spend more. The huge caveat behind all of this that Starmer said is whether the UK could afford it, as long as it fits within their funding guidelines they’ve installed for themselves. It’s quite crucial that that element is met before any commitment is made to spending this money.”

Does the SDR go far enough?

The SDR outlined ambitious plans to build six new munitions factories to procure long-ranged weapons, produce 12 new nuclear attack submarines for the Royal Navy and invest £1.5bn in military housing, among other policies. Labour previously committed to spend 2.5 per cent of GDP on defence by 2027. Sir Keir said the government would raise this further to three per cent in the next parliament, but did not give a specific timeline.

Dr Townley has some concerns regarding the costing, but thinks US president Donald Trump and European allies will take note. “I believe three per cent is a step forward, but other nations such as Poland are going further,” Dr Townley said. “There’s talk of 3.5 per cent by at least by 2033. We are slightly behind the curve in terms of this uptick. There is still a bit of ambiguity to where some of this money will be spent. The SDR is a political tool. With the investment, we’re indicating to Donald Trump and Nato that we are taking this seriously.”

Dr Townley, who teaches RAF officer cadets at RAF College Cranwell, said he is still slightly sceptical: believing the government needs to be smarter about how it spends its money on procurement to have greater confidence in them. He cited the long-running RAF Tempest procurement program still not having a prototype as a concern. The academic believes Sir Keir’s ambition is to be the most significant European member of Nato, but further commitment it needed to achieve this.

“Are we able to operate independently at three per cent from the United States? Absolutely not. We have to consider life without the United States being the major active partner of Nato, as it has been in the past.”

Clear message to Russia? Does this go far enough to support the Royal Navy?

Dr Townley believes the UK faces threats from China and North Korea, as well as Russia. “I’m not quite sure what message it (the SDR) sends,” he added. “Is it a belligerent one that we’re taking it seriously? Will Russia see this as another view of armed action? I don’t think so. They’re more focused on the Baltic states and potential territorial gains.

“I don’t think China views us as a military competitor, but an economic one. I think there are things within the spending that sends the right message, that we do take defence seriously, something which has been of a concern from within the armed forces since the mid-1990s.”

Despite some reservations, Dr Townley said the investment in submarines is welcome news for the Royal Navy. “With the limited budgets of the past, they’ve been robbing Peter to pay Paul,” he added.

“Having a fleet that can stand up to the rigour of armed conflict has been lacking for some time now. Some would argue the Royal Fleet Auxiliary needs significant investment. The Royal Navy would like more, but I’m sure the RAF would as well. We’re somewhat behind the times in terms of swapping financial efficiency for actual operational effectiveness. Maybe there is some blue sky on the horizon for the Royal Navy.”