Doubts have been case about whether the government can afford its “highly ambitious” defence reforms.

Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, chair of the Public Accounts committee, has analysed the financial ramifications of bolstering the Royal Navy, Army, and RAF. A published report available to the public detailed the cost of implementing the Strategic Defence Review (SDR), and meeting rising Nato spending targets - citing some concerns.

Doubts have been cast on whether Royal Navy and military reforms are actually affordable, following all recommendations in the Strategic Defence Review being accepted. | Leon Neal/Getty Images

placeholder image — Doubts have been cast on whether Royal Navy and military reforms are actually affordable, following all recommendations in the Strategic Defence Review being accepted. | Leon Neal/Getty Images

“We have a highly ambitious Strategic Defence Review (SDR) with the promise of a Defence Investment Plan to be published later this month,” the Conservative MP for North Cotswolds said. “In light of the figures laid out in the final chapter of this report on defence expenditure, I remain extremely sceptical that the commitments in the SDR are affordable.

“On the other hand, the defence of the nation and its people is government’s most important duty. We all know that it is much cheaper to deter war than to participate in one. Therefore, given the current fiscal situation, government will need to set out how it plans to finance the enormous increases in the defence budget, and the Committee must be allowed to ask the right questions to investigate these sensitive areas.”

Can the UK afford increasing defence spending?

The government has pledged to raise defence spending to 2.6 per cent of GDP by 2027, with the “ambition” to increase this to three per cent in the next parliament. According to the report, he current MoD budget for 2025–26 is £62.2bn - roughly 2.2 per cent.

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To reach the required 2.6 per cent of GDP by 2027–28, the government will need to spend roughly £71bn. If GDP stays the same, the government needs to raise £9bn over the next two years. To reach the projected three per cent figure in the next parliament, the defence budget will need to increase to roughly £85bn.

After the government committed to meet Nato’s target of five per cent of spending on defence - 3.5 per cent on core spending and 1.5 per cent on resilience - it needs to spend around £100bn on the former and roughly £40bn on the latter. Total spending needs to reach £140bn by 2035.

These projections will rise if GDP increases. The report said this will create “extremely large expenditure commitments without clear plans for how the government will pay for them.”