"More than 20,000 sailors could become trapped in the Gulf" as Hormuz stand-off has reduced traffic to a trickle
Huge concerns have been raised about the impact on those trapped as a result of the ongoing Iran-US/Israeli comflict.
A stark warning has been given of a looming humanitarian crisis as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz which could lead to more than 20,000 sailors becoming trapped in the Gulf, a Royal Navy-led team has said.
Shipping traffic in the crucial waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman has dropped by more than 90 per cent since the conflict in the Middle East began, say experts from the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) which is monitoring the region’s waters.
The team, based on Portsdown Hill overlooking Portsmouth, has also said that more than two dozen ships have been damaged or suffered casualties attempting to run the gauntlet into/out of the Gulf in a strangulation of international trade. And with the world’s gaze focused on the Strait of Hormuz, there is a warning of resurgent piracy off the coast of Somalia.
UKMTO acts as both ‘999 call centre’ for seafarers passing through the Red Sea/Gulf/northern Indian Ocean, and information service, warning of threats and dangers to mariners lawfully plying their trade.
The Strait has remained largely blocked since the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran - and Tehran responded by blocking the crucial waterway through which 20 per cent of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas is meant to pass freely.
“The most distressing calls are those from ships under attack,” said Commander Jo Black, UKMTO Head of Operations.
“It’s an absolutely terrifying experience for them – they’re civilians, they’re not prepared for this – drones, missiles, small arms fire aimed at their bridge or engine room, and threats to their safety – so they’re stressed, many speak only very rudimentary English and they’re trying to describe things often beyond their comprehension.
“We try to calm them down, get them to explain what they can see, and what’s happening so that we can build an accurate picture to share with other seafarers and responding organisations.”
The attacks – or threats of attack (despite claims by Iranian authorities there’s been no evidence yet of the trait being mined) – have all but closed the traffic separation scheme, the ‘shipping motorway’, traditionally used by shipping to enter and exit the Gulf safely.
The impact on global trade is immediately evident courtesy of the oversize screens which dominate the operations room, some focused on the wider region, others zoomed into the strait itself. Occasionally, a ship will make its way in or out of the Gulf, but most do not, the UKMTO said.
But far more are clustered in anchorages inside the Gulf: between 850 and 870 major merchant ships (tankers, natural gas transporters, container vessels, cargo ships). Before the strait was closed around 130 ships a day were passing through.
Now it’s been reduced to a trickle: fewer than ten vessels daily (a 2:1 split of ships leaving/entering). The longer the strait is closed, not only does it impact global oil, food, energy and goods prices, but the UKMTO staff are concerned about the impact on the crews of the 850-plus trapped ships.
“Our first concern is for the safety and security of seafarers,” Commander Black stressed. “There are around 20,000 sailors on ships going nowhere.
“Crew changes are not taking place. Sailors are not going home, food and supplies are getting through, but are reduced and there’s also the impact on mental health longer term. It’s not an issue yet, but if the situation persists, it’s likely to become one.”
The centre builds a comprehensive picture of maritime activity across the Middle East – including the Red Sea and northern Indian Ocean – drawing largely upon open-source information: AIS transponders which transmit ship’s identification information and movements, social media, voluntary reports from ship’s masters, and news outlets.
It proved particularly valuable during the surge in piracy off the coast of Somalia – a fictionalized version of the ops room even featured in the Tom Hanks’ movie Captain Phillips.
It’s important for the team to send out timely warnings – but above all accurate ones, verifying every report they receive before alerting seafarers.
“UKMTO is the gold standard when it comes to providing timely, accurate, reliable, impartial information,” Commander Black said. “Our staff don’t care about where you are from, what flag you are flying, where you are coming from or going to. We care about the safety and security of seafarers.”
Established in the wake of the 2001 9/11 attacks, over the past quarter of a century the centre has built up a reputation among mariners, shipping companies, seafaring organisations, civilian and military authorities and governments for speed, accuracy, usefulness and impartiality – all crucial in one of the world’s most unsettled regions.
After intense periods in the late 00s/early 10s when Somali-based piracy was at its peak, and again at the end of 2023 when Houthi rebels in Yemen targeted Red Sea shipping, traffic in the Middle East’s sea lanes had resumed some form of normality.
But since the US’s ‘Operation Epic Fury’ began at the end of February, reports coming into UKMTO have gone “through the roof” – in the Strait of Hormuz especially.
The centre has recorded 41 incidents between March 1 and April 27 including:
- 26 ‘attacks’ where ships or their crew were damaged/harmed either deliberately, or suffered collateral damage (such as shrapnel from an intercepted drone);
- 4 incidents of merchant ships being harassed or impeded;
- 9 ships experiencing near-misses.